Pair #862

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-MSCH

Will Matti Schmid lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Matti Schmid
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20310

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matti Schmid is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Matti Schmid finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matti Schmid
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5829

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matti Schmid finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:11:10Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 overall and leading after Round 1 are independent — a player can finish top 20 without ever leading R1, and can lead R1 without finishing top 20.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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