Pair #860

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-DWIL

Valspar Championship: Will Danny Willett finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Danny Willett
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17311

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Danny Willett finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-DWIL

Will Danny Willett win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Danny Willett
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 180569

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Danny Willett wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:11:10Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters and finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship are independent events at different tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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