Pair #857

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-DWIL

Valspar Championship: Will Danny Willett make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Danny Willett
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4602

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Danny Willett makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-DWIL

Will Danny Willett lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Danny Willett
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 935

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Danny Willett is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:11:10Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could still miss the cut after Round 2), and making the cut does not imply leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.8700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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