Pair #8568

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-ABUB

Will Alexander Bublik win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Alexander Bublik
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 914

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alexander Bublik wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26APR07MONBUB-BUB

Will Alexander Bublik win the Monfils vs Bublik : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Alexander Bublik
Expiration: 2026-04-07T12:00:00Z
Volume: 28806

YES ask: 0.6700
NO ask: 0.3400
Last: 0.6700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alexander Bublik wins the Monfils vs Bublik professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:37:54Z

Reasoning: The Monfils vs Bublik match is in the Monte Carlo Round of 32, not a Grand Slam event. Winning a Grand Slam does not require winning this match, and winning this match does not imply winning a Grand Slam.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -57.87% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6600
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -62.15% BELOW HURDLE

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