Pair #8567

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXMCMMEN-26-LMUS

Will Lorenzo Musetti win the ATP Monte-Carlo Masters?

Series: KXMCMMEN
Entity: Lorenzo Musetti
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 780

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Lorenzo Musetti wins the 2026 ATP Monte-Carlo Masters professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26APR07MUSVAC-MUS

Will Lorenzo Musetti win the Musetti vs Vacherot : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Lorenzo Musetti
Expiration: 2026-04-07T12:00:00Z
Volume: 19343

YES ask: 0.6700
NO ask: 0.3500
Last: 0.6700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Lorenzo Musetti wins the Musetti vs Vacherot professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:37:54Z

Reasoning: To win the Monte-Carlo Masters, Musetti must win every match in the tournament including the Round of 32 match against Vacherot. However, winning the Round of 32 does not imply winning the tournament. So winning Monte-Carlo necessitates winning the Vacherot match, but not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

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