Pair #8565

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOMEN-26-MUS

Will Lorenzo Musetti win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Lorenzo Musetti
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 106863

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Lorenzo Musetti wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXMCMMEN-26-LMUS

Will Lorenzo Musetti win the ATP Monte-Carlo Masters?

Series: KXMCMMEN
Entity: Lorenzo Musetti
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 780

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Lorenzo Musetti wins the 2026 ATP Monte-Carlo Masters professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:37:54Z

Reasoning: The French Open and Monte-Carlo Masters are completely separate tournaments. Neither result necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -30.45% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -34.67% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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