Pair #8564

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-LMUS

Will Lorenzo Musetti win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Lorenzo Musetti
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8348

YES ask: 0.8700
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Lorenzo Musetti wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26APR07MUSVAC-MUS

Will Lorenzo Musetti win the Musetti vs Vacherot : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Lorenzo Musetti
Expiration: 2026-04-07T12:00:00Z
Volume: 19343

YES ask: 0.6700
NO ask: 0.3500
Last: 0.6700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Lorenzo Musetti wins the Musetti vs Vacherot professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:37:54Z

Reasoning: The Musetti vs Vacherot match is in the Monte Carlo Round of 32, not a Grand Slam event. Winning a Grand Slam does not require winning this match, and winning this match does not imply winning a Grand Slam.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -57.16% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6400
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -61.44% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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