Pair #8563

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-LMUS

Will Lorenzo Musetti win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Lorenzo Musetti
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8348

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Lorenzo Musetti wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXMCMMEN-26-LMUS

Will Lorenzo Musetti win the ATP Monte-Carlo Masters?

Series: KXMCMMEN
Entity: Lorenzo Musetti
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 780

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Lorenzo Musetti wins the 2026 ATP Monte-Carlo Masters professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:37:54Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam does not require winning Monte-Carlo, and winning Monte-Carlo is not a Grand Slam. These are independent tournaments with no logical dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 3.74% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -0.58% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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