Pair #8552

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CCON

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1617

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-CCON

The Masters: Will Corey Conners finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 14604

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:37:34Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major in 2026 could be at any of the four majors, not necessarily The Masters. Finishing top 5 at The Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.74% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -2.54% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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