Pair #8551

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CCON

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1617

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-CCON

The Masters: Will Corey Conners make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 21511

YES ask: 0.6300
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:37:34Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require winning The Masters specifically — Conners could win a different major. And making the cut at The Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -55.61% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6100
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -59.90% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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