Pair #8550

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CCON

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1617

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-CCON

Will Corey Conners lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 352950

YES ask: 0.0220
NO ask: 0.9870
Last: 0.0230

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:37:15Z

Reasoning: Conners could win a different major without leading R1 at the Masters, and leading R1 at the Masters does not imply winning any major. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -0.34% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0020
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -4.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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