Pair #855

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-DWIL

Valspar Championship: Will Danny Willett finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Danny Willett
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17311

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Danny Willett finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-DWIL

Valspar Championship: Will Danny Willett finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Danny Willett
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 39249

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Danny Willett finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:11:10Z

Reasoning: If Willett finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20 as well. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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