Pair #8549

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CCON

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1617

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-CCON

The Masters: Will Corey Conners finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 110926

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:37:15Z

Reasoning: Conners could win a major other than the Masters (PGA Championship, US Open, The Open) and still not finish top 20 at the Masters. And finishing top 20 at the Masters does not mean he won a major. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -4.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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