Pair #8543

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-MAST26-DJOH

Will Dustin Johnson lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3548

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

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Rules

If Dustin Johnson is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-DJOH

The Masters: Will Dustin Johnson make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 30556

YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 0.2800
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Dustin Johnson has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:37:15Z

Reasoning: At the Masters, the cut is made after Round 2. If Dustin Johnson is the leader at the end of Round 2, he has necessarily made the cut. The reverse does not hold: making the cut does not imply leading after R2.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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