Pair #8541

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-DUJ

The Masters: Will Dustin Johnson finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 81852

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Dustin Johnson finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-DJOH

The Masters: Will Dustin Johnson make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 30556

YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 0.2800
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Dustin Johnson has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:37:15Z

Reasoning: If Dustin Johnson finishes top 20, he must have made the cut — you cannot finish in the top 20 at the end of the tournament without having survived the cut. The reverse does not hold: making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue