Pair #854

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-DWIL

Valspar Championship: Will Danny Willett finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Danny Willett
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 39249

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Danny Willett finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-DWIL

Valspar Championship: Will Danny Willett make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Danny Willett
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4602

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Danny Willett makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:11:10Z

Reasoning: If Willett finishes top 20 at Valspar, he must have made the cut to play the final rounds. However, making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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