Pair #8534

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-DJOH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1608

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Dustin Johnson wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-DJOH

The Masters: Will Dustin Johnson make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 30556

YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 0.2800
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Dustin Johnson has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:36:52Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at a tournament other than the Masters, so making the cut at the Masters is not necessitated. Making the cut at the Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -61.67% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7500
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -65.95% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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