Pair #8533

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-DJOH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1608

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Dustin Johnson wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-DJOH

Will Dustin Johnson lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 33462

YES ask: 0.0060
NO ask: 0.9950
Last: 0.0060

View on Kalshi

Rules If Dustin Johnson is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:36:52Z

Reasoning: Winning any 2026 major does not require leading after Round 1 of the Masters. Leading after Round 1 of the Masters does not guarantee winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 2.45% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9860
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -1.84% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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