Pair #8531

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-DJOH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1608

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Dustin Johnson wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-DUJ

The Masters: Will Dustin Johnson finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 81852

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Dustin Johnson finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:36:52Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could come from a tournament other than the Masters, so top 20 at the Masters is not necessitated. Top 20 at the Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -4.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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