Pair #8530

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-DJOH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1608

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

Rules

If Dustin Johnson wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-DUJ

The Masters: Will Dustin Johnson finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 23001

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Dustin Johnson finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:36:52Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require finishing top 10 at the Masters specifically (he could win a different major). Finishing top 10 at the Masters does not mean he wins any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.73% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -2.55% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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