Pair #853

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-DWIL

Valspar Championship: Will Danny Willett finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Danny Willett
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 39249

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Danny Willett finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-DWIL

Will Danny Willett win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Danny Willett
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 180569

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Danny Willett wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:11:10Z

Reasoning: These are entirely different tournaments. Finishing top 20 at Valspar has no logical connection to winning the Masters, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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