Pair #8529

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-DJOH

Will Dustin Johnson win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2398576

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Dustin Johnson wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-DJOH

The Masters: Will Dustin Johnson make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Dustin Johnson
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 30556

YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 0.2800
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Dustin Johnson has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:36:52Z

Reasoning: If Dustin Johnson wins the Masters, he must have played all four rounds, which means he necessarily made the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not imply winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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