Pair #8518

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BHAR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4310

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-BRH

The Masters: Will Brian Harman finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3069

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:36:35Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at any of the four majors, not necessarily The Masters. Finishing top 5 at The Masters doesn't imply winning any major. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 5.36% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9700
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +1.08% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue