Pair #8517

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BHAR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4310

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-BHAR

Will Brian Harman lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 27677

YES ask: 0.0060
NO ask: 0.9950
Last: 0.0060

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:36:35Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 doesn't require leading Round 1 at The Masters. Leading Round 1 at The Masters doesn't imply winning any major. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 6.08% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9660
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +1.80% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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