Pair #8516

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BHAR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4310

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-BRH

The Masters: Will Brian Harman finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 42803

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:36:35Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 doesn't require a top-20 at The Masters specifically (he could win a different major). Finishing top 20 at The Masters doesn't imply winning any major. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -18.90% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1300
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -23.18% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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