Pair #851

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-ATOS

Valspar Championship: Will Alejandro Tosti make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4927

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.6000
Last: 0.6500

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Rules

If Alejandro Tosti makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-ATOS

Valspar Championship: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 975

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alejandro Tosti finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:10:52Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish, and finishing top 10 requires making the cut but top 10 → make cut is the direction (not cut → top 10). However, the question asks about A and B as labeled: making cut does not imply top 10, and top 10 does imply making cut but that direction has A=makecut and B=top10, so antecedent would be top10 (B) implying makecut (A). Since the pair is makecut (A) vs top10 (B): B implies A (top10 implies makecut).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.6200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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