Pair #85

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-DEN

What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1214

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

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Rules

If Stefon Diggs's next team is Denver before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN

Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 222934

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:00:50Z

Reasoning: Whether Stefon Diggs signs with Denver is independent of whether Denver wins the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -17.23% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: 184
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -21.51% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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