Pair #8496

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-MAH

The Masters: Will Max Homa finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 116134

YES ask: 0.4100
NO ask: 0.6000
Last: 0.4100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max Homa finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-MHOM

The Masters: Will Max Homa make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 19402

YES ask: 0.8300
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max Homa has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:35:58Z

Reasoning: A top 20 finish requires completing all rounds, which means making the cut. The reverse is not true — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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