Pair #849

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-ATOS

Valspar Championship: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1379

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-ATOS

Valspar Championship: Will Alejandro Tosti make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4927

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.6000
Last: 0.6500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:10:52Z

Reasoning: If Tosti finishes top 5 in the tournament, he must have made the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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