Pair #8477

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-JJS

The Masters: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 15332

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If J.J. Spaun finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-JJS

The Masters: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 28930

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.7200
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If J.J. Spaun finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:35:20Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 at the Masters necessarily means finishing top 20 as well. The reverse does not hold — finishing 11th-20th is top 20 but not top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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