Pair #8476

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2321

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0700

Rules

If J.J. Spaun wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-JJS

The Masters: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 17738

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If J.J. Spaun finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:35:20Z

Reasoning: Spaun could win a different major (not the Masters) without finishing top 5 at the Masters. And a top 5 at the Masters doesn't guarantee winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -4.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -9.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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