Pair #8475

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2321

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-JSPA

Will J.J. Spaun lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 268119

YES ask: 0.0180
NO ask: 0.9880
Last: 0.0180

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:35:20Z

Reasoning: Winning a major does not require leading after Round 1 of the Masters, and leading after Round 1 of the Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 3.87% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9780
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -0.41% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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