Pair #8474

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2321

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-JJS

The Masters: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 28930

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.7200
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:35:20Z

Reasoning: Spaun could win a different major without finishing top 20 at the Masters. And a top 20 at the Masters doesn't imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -34.36% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2800
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -38.65% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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