Pair #8473

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2321

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0700

Rules

If J.J. Spaun wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-JJS

The Masters: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 15332

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If J.J. Spaun finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:35:20Z

Reasoning: Spaun could win a different major (PGA Championship, US Open, Open Championship) without finishing top 10 at the Masters. And finishing top 10 at the Masters doesn't mean winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -15.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -19.29% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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