Pair #8472

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JSPA

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4147

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-JJS

The Masters: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 17738

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:35:20Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require a top 5 finish at the Masters (could finish 6th-10th). And a top 5 at the Masters alone does not guarantee top 10 in all 4 majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -35.66% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -39.87% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue