Pair #8471

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JSPA

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4147

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-JSPA

Will J.J. Spaun lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 268119

YES ask: 0.0180
NO ask: 0.9880
Last: 0.0180

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:35:20Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require leading after Round 1 of the Masters, and leading after Round 1 does not imply finishing top 10 in all 4 majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.17% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0180
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -15.38% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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