Pair #847

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-ATOS

Valspar Championship: Will Alejandro Tosti make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4927

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.6000
Last: 0.6500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alejandro Tosti makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-ATOS

Will Alejandro Tosti lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3178

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alejandro Tosti is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:10:52Z

Reasoning: Leading after round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could collapse in round 2), and making the cut does not require leading after round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.6100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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