Pair #8469

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JSPA

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4147

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-JJS

The Masters: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 15332

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:35:20Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in ALL 4 majors necessarily includes finishing top 10 at the Masters. The reverse does not hold — top 10 at just the Masters does not mean top 10 in all four.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -67.12% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1400
Days to maturity: 43
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -71.31% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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