Pair #8468

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JSPA

Will J.J. Spaun win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 4303647

YES ask: 0.0030
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0030

View on Kalshi

Rules

If J.J. Spaun wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-JJS

The Masters: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 17738

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If J.J. Spaun finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:35:20Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters means finishing 1st, which is necessarily inside the top 5. The reverse does not hold — top 5 does not mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0690
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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