Pair #8456

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-MHO

The Masters: Will Mason Howell finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Mason Howell
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2438

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Mason Howell finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-MHOW

The Masters: Will Mason Howell make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Mason Howell
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 26438

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Mason Howell has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:34:59Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 logically requires having made the cut. However, making the cut does not imply finishing top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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