Pair #8452

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26AMAT-MHOW

Will Mason Howell finish as the top Amateur golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Mason Howell
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:00Z
Volume: 31363

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mason Howell records the lowest total strokes among all Amateur golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-MHO

The Masters: Will Mason Howell finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Mason Howell
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 3456

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mason Howell finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: need more info
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:34:32Z

Reasoning: Whether a top 10 finish implies being the top amateur depends on Mason Howell's amateur status and whether other amateurs finish ahead of him. No guaranteed logical implication without knowing his status and the field composition.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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