Pair #845

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-ATOS

Valspar Championship: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 975

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-ATOS

Valspar Championship: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10914

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:10:52Z

Reasoning: If Tosti finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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