Pair #8444

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MHOW

Will Mason Howell win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Mason Howell
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 601551

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

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Rules

If Mason Howell wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-MHO

The Masters: Will Mason Howell finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Mason Howell
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 3456

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Mason Howell finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:34:32Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters means finishing 1st, which is necessarily within the top 10. The reverse does not hold: finishing top 10 does not mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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