Pair #844

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-ATOS

Valspar Championship: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10914

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-ATOS

Valspar Championship: Will Alejandro Tosti make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4927

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.6000
Last: 0.6500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:10:52Z

Reasoning: If Tosti finishes top 20 in the tournament, he must have made the cut (you cannot finish in the top 20 overall without surviving the cut). The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue