Pair #8437

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-WCLA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5365

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.1100

Rules

If Wyndham Clark wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-WYC

The Masters: Will Wyndham Clark finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 15259

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Wyndham Clark finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:34:08Z

Reasoning: Clark could win a different major (not the Masters), so winning a major does not imply a top 5 at the Masters. Top 5 at the Masters does not imply winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -3.32% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -7.60% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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