Pair #8436

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-WCLA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5365

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.1100

Rules

If Wyndham Clark wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-WCLA

The Masters: Will Wyndham Clark make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 6877

YES ask: 0.8800
NO ask: 0.1700
Last: 0.8500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Wyndham Clark has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:34:08Z

Reasoning: Clark could win a major other than the Masters without making the Masters cut, and making the Masters cut does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -64.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8500
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -69.26% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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