Pair #8435

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-WCLA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5365

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Wyndham Clark wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-WCLA

Will Wyndham Clark lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 25977

YES ask: 0.0070
NO ask: 0.9940
Last: 0.0070

View on Kalshi

Rules If Wyndham Clark is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:34:08Z

Reasoning: Clark could win a different major without leading the Masters after Round 1, and leading after Round 1 at the Masters does not guarantee winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 4.07% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9770
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -0.21% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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