Pair #8427

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-MIK

The Masters: Will Michael Kim finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Michael Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 4589

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michael Kim finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-MIK

The Masters: Will Michael Kim finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Michael Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 8047

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michael Kim finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:33:48Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 as well. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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