Pair #842

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-ATOS

Will Alejandro Tosti lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3178

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-ATOS

Valspar Championship: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10914

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:10:52Z

Reasoning: Leading after round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish, and finishing top 20 overall does not require leading after round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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