Pair #8407

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SJIM

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1107

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26APAC-SIM

Will Sungjae Im finish as the top Asian/Oceanic golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 20222

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im records the lowest total strokes among all Asian/Oceanic golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:33:28Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Major in 2026 does not necessitate winning the Masters specifically, and could be a different major. Winning the Masters does not necessitate being the top Asian/Oceanic golfer (another Asian/Oceanic golfer could finish higher). And being top Asian/Oceanic at the Masters does not imply winning a major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -4.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -9.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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